Risk estimation in power networks by using failure models for components

Publikasjonsnr: 227-2007
Tilgjengelig som fil: Ja
Tilgjengelig som print: Ja
Type: Publikasjoner
Fagområde: Nett
ISBN: 978-82-432-0572-7

In this report we have described and discussed several models for lifetime estimation of network components. This has been done by using XLPE cables and circuit breakers as pilots, and the application of the models is demonstrated through some examples.

The described models fall more or less into one of the following three categories:

1.  Fault statistics and knowledge about deterioration processes are used to model the component’s failure rate (bath-tub curve).

2.  Expert judgment of a component’s deterioration curve in combination with actual technical condition are used to model the component’s failure probability.

3.  Previous knowledge about a component’s failure process combined with failure statistics are used to model the component’s failure probability density function (Bayesian methods).

Results from the application of failure models for components are important to the management as well as to the strategic and operational level in a utility. The power network infrastructure consists of a large number of components, and in order to optimise maintenance and renewal the network companies need better models and tools based on knowledge about expected residual lifetime and failure probability of critical components. The described models and methods will support the network companies to better analyse risks and to make better decisions for condition monitoring, maintenance and renewal.

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